OrreryX Risk Scoring Methodology
How the OrreryX Intelligence Team assesses live geopolitical risk scores, severity weights, and market-impact estimates across 34 tracked countries and 15 conflict zones.
Last updated by OrreryX Intelligence Team: 23 May 2026
Key Takeaways
- Risk scores combine event frequency, severity weighting (1–10 scale), recency decay, and AI-assisted categorisation
- Market impact estimates are derived from 40+ years of historical conflict-market correlations
- Scores update every 5 minutes as new events are ingested from 45+ verified news sources
- Country risk scores range 0–100; above 70 = critical, 40–70 = elevated, below 40 = moderate
- All methodologies are reviewed quarterly by the OrreryX Intelligence Team
1. Data Sources
OrreryX ingests geopolitical event data from 45+ sources in real time, including Reuters, BBC, Al Jazeera, Associated Press, Deutsche Welle, Bloomberg, and regional outlets across Africa, South Asia, the Middle East, and East Asia. Events are deduplicated using content hashing and normalised to a common schema before scoring.
OrreryX tracks 34 countries in its live feed and 15 active conflict zones, updated continuously throughout the day.
2. Event Severity Scoring
Each ingested event is assigned a severity score from 1 to 10 based on the type of action reported:
| Event Type | Base Severity | Risk Level |
|---|---|---|
| Nuclear test / detonation | 10 | CRITICAL |
| Full-scale invasion / ground offensive | 9 | CRITICAL |
| Missile / airstrike against civilian targets | 8 | CRITICAL |
| Military mobilisation / troop deployment | 7 | CRITICAL |
| Major sanctions package announced | 6 | ELEVATED |
| Drone strike / targeted attack | 6 | ELEVATED |
| Diplomatic expulsion / embassy closure | 5 | ELEVATED |
| Protest / civil unrest | 4 | ELEVATED |
| Diplomatic warning / official statement | 3 | MODERATE |
| Ceasefire announcement / peace talks | 2 | MODERATE |
3. Country Risk Score Calculation
The OrreryX country risk score (0–100) is calculated using a rolling 30-day weighted average of event severity, adjusted for:
- Recency decay: Events in the last 24 hours carry 3× the weight of events from 7 days ago
- Escalation velocity: A rapid increase in event frequency over 72 hours adds up to +15 points
- Nuclear proximity bonus: Countries with active nuclear weapons programmes receive a baseline floor of +20
- Neighbouring conflict spillover: Countries bordering active conflict zones receive +5 to +10
- Economic sanctions multiplier: Active comprehensive sanctions add up to +10
0–39 = MODERATE 40–69 = ELEVATED 70–100 = CRITICAL
4. Market Impact Estimation
OrreryX market-impact estimates draw on well-documented historical relationships between major geopolitical events since 1980 and subsequent moves in commodity prices, equity indices, and currencies. These are historical tendencies, not forecasts.
Key correlations used in our model as of 2026:
- Oil price: Middle East conflict events with severity ≥7 correlate with +8–22% Brent crude spike within 5 trading days (based on 1990 Gulf War, 2003 Iraq invasion, 2019 Aramco attack data)
- Gold price: Any conflict escalation with severity ≥6 correlates with +3–8% gold move within 10 days
- Defense stocks: NATO-adjacent conflicts correlate with +5–15% outperformance of global defense ETFs (XAR, ITA) over 30 days
- Safe haven flows: Critical-level events trigger measurable USD, JPY, and CHF appreciation within 48 hours based on 2022–2026 data
5. AI-Assisted Categorisation
OrreryX uses Claude (Anthropic) to assist with event categorisation, severity assessment, and market-impact narratives. AI supplements — it does not replace — structured data signals, and it does not set the final published risk scores on its own. AI outputs are reviewed against the underlying source articles before publication.
6. Update Frequency
OrreryX risk scores update on the following cadences:
- Live event feed: Every 5 minutes from RSS + real-time wire services
- Country risk scores: Recalculated every 30 minutes
- Market impact estimates: Refreshed daily at 06:00 UTC
- Full methodology review: Quarterly (next review: Q3 2026)
7. Limitations & Disclaimers
OrreryX risk scores reflect the OrreryX Intelligence Team's assessment using the factors described above. They are indicative editorial judgements — not the output of an independently back-tested predictive model — and they do not constitute financial, investment, or geopolitical advice. Market-impact estimates are based on historical tendencies and are not predictions of future market movements.
Event coverage depends on source availability. Events in countries with restricted press freedom may be underrepresented. OrreryX continuously works to expand source coverage in underreported regions.
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