How the world's risk profile evolved from the invasion of Ukraine to today — every major escalation, its risk score, and what it moved in markets.
Global Risk Index — 2022 to 2026Peak: 94 / 100
20222023202420252026
Chronological Event Log — 12 Major Flashpoints
Conflict
Nuclear
Economic
Milestone
24 Feb 2022
Russia Invades Ukraine
Full-scale invasion begins across multiple fronts. NATO supply chains activated within weeks; European defence posture shifts fundamentally.
UkraineRussia
16 Mar 2022
Western Sanctions Package
Largest sanctions regime in history targets Russian energy, banks and oligarchs. SWIFT disconnection triggers emergency capital controls.
RussiaEUUSA
08 Oct 2022
Crimea Bridge Attack
Kerch Strait bridge explosion escalates conflict. Russia responds with mass missile strikes on Ukrainian cities and energy infrastructure.
UkraineRussia
15 Apr 2023
Sudan Civil War Erupts
RSF vs SAF conflict begins in Khartoum. Rapidly becomes the world's largest displacement crisis with over 8 million people displaced.
Sudan
07 Oct 2023
Hamas Attacks Israel
Largest attack on Israel since 1973. Israel declares war. Middle East multi-front risk activated as Hezbollah and Iran posture.
IsraelPalestineIran
17 Oct 2023
Gaza Ground Operation Begins
IDF enters Gaza. Hezbollah opens second front from Lebanon. Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping begin, triggering global supply chain stress.
IsraelLebanonYemen
12 Jan 2024
Red Sea Crisis Peak
Houthi missiles force major shipping reroutes around Cape of Good Hope. Suez Canal traffic drops 40%, adding 10+ days to key trade routes.
YemenGlobal
01 Apr 2024
Iran Direct Strike on Israel
First direct state-to-state military exchange between Iran and Israel. 300+ drones and missiles intercepted by US, UK and Israeli defence systems.
IranIsrael
06 Jun 2024
Doomsday Clock Set to 89 Seconds
Bulletin of Atomic Scientists sets closest-ever reading to midnight. Multiple nuclear states in active conflict adjacency for the first time since the Cold War.
Global
20 Jan 2025
India-Pakistan LoC Escalation
Line of Control violations reach 2-year high. Both sides mobilise reserves. Nuclear doctrine statements exchanged publicly for the first time in five years.
IndiaPakistan
15 Aug 2025
North Korea-Russia Arms Deal Confirmed
Shell deliveries and missile components confirmed. North Korea receives satellite and re-entry vehicle technology in exchange, raising peninsula nuclear risk.
North KoreaRussia
15 Apr 2026
Global Risk Index Peak
Average geopolitical risk score reaches highest level since the Cold War. Thirteen simultaneous active flashpoints recorded — a post-1945 record for concurrent crises.