Every major active war and armed conflict tracked in real time — with risk levels, casualty data, and market intelligence for investors and analysts.
Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, now entering its fourth year, remains the most significant conventional land war in Europe since World War II. The front line has stabilized along a 1,000km front in eastern and southern Ukraine. Peace negotiations remain stalled, with both sides hardening positions in 2025. NATO has dramatically increased aid, with F-16 fighter jets now operational in Ukrainian service.
The Israel-Hamas war that began with the October 7, 2023 Hamas attacks has evolved into a prolonged ground campaign, with significant humanitarian crisis in Gaza. The conflict has drawn in Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthi forces in Yemen (attacking Red Sea shipping), and proxy groups across Syria and Iraq. Iran's direct missile strikes on Israel in April and October 2024 marked an unprecedented escalation in regional hostilities.
The conflict between Sudan's Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which began in April 2023, has created what the UN describes as the world's largest displacement crisis. Khartoum, once a capital of 5 million, lies largely destroyed. The RSF controls most of Darfur and has been documented committing mass atrocities. Famine conditions now affect over 25 million Sudanese — the largest famine crisis on Earth.
The People's Defence Force and allied ethnic resistance armies made dramatic territorial gains in 2024, now controlling over 70% of Myanmar's territory. The military junta that seized power in February 2021 has lost multiple regional capitals and is showing signs of operational collapse. China, which backed the junta, has shifted toward engaging resistance factions as junta failures mount. The conflict has made Myanmar ungovernable and destabilizes the broader ASEAN region.
The M23 rebel advance in eastern DRC reached a peak in early 2025, with the capture of Goma — eastern Congo's largest city and economic hub. The conflict sits at the heart of the global EV and tech supply chain, as eastern Congo produces 70% of the world's cobalt and significant coltan (tantalum) used in every smartphone and lithium battery on Earth. Rwanda's alleged backing of M23 rebels has triggered a regional crisis involving Uganda, Burundi, and a fragile AU ceasefire process.
The year 2025 is the most conflict-intensive period in post-Cold War history. According to the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), there are currently 56 active armed conflicts worldwide, with seven classified as wars by the 1,000 deaths per year threshold. The Institute for Economics and Peace's 2025 Global Peace Index reports that only 11 countries are free from active conflict involvement — a new record low.
For investors and market analysts, geopolitical conflict is no longer a tail risk to be discounted — it is a structural feature of the market environment. Portfolios that fail to price in geopolitical risk systematically underperform during conflict escalation cycles.
Several factors converge to make the 2025 conflict landscape unprecedented. First, great power competition is at its most acute since the Cold War: the US-China rivalry has moved from economic competition to direct technological decoupling and military posturing around Taiwan. Second, the Ukraine war has normalized large-scale conventional warfare in Europe after 80 years of peace. Third, the Middle East has not seen this level of multi-front conflict since 1973. Fourth, Africa is experiencing the highest concentration of active conflicts since decolonization, with Sudan, DRC, Somalia, Ethiopia, Sahel, and Mozambique all running simultaneously.
Modern conflicts affect markets through five primary channels. Energy disruption remains the most immediate: any conflict threatening Strait of Hormuz passage (20% of global oil), Russian pipeline flows, or North Sea infrastructure triggers immediate oil and gas price spikes. Commodity supply chains are the second channel — the Ukraine war showed how quickly a single region's disruption can cascade into global food and fertilizer crises. The DRC conflict is doing the same for battery metals.
Shipping route disruption is a newer and increasingly important channel. Houthi attacks in the Red Sea in 2024-2025 added $200-400 per container to Asia-Europe shipping via Cape of Good Hope rerouting — an invisible tax on global trade. Safe-haven flows drive gold, USD, CHF, and US Treasuries higher during conflict escalations, while defense spending surges directly benefit Lockheed Martin (LMT), Northrop Grumman (NOC), RTX, BAE Systems, and Rheinmetall.
While Ukraine and Gaza dominate headlines, the conflict that may have the most significant long-term economic impact is the DRC war. Eastern Congo holds 70% of the world's cobalt reserves, the key ingredient in lithium-ion batteries powering electric vehicles and consumer electronics. The M23 advance in early 2025 disrupted mining operations around Goma, triggering cobalt price spikes that fed directly into EV production cost increases at Tesla, BYD, and every major battery manufacturer. Investors exposed to EV supply chains ignore this conflict at their peril.
| Conflict | Risk Level | Nuclear Risk | Market Impact | Key Asset |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine–Russia | Critical | High | Extreme | Natural Gas, Wheat |
| Israel–Gaza | Critical | Low | Extreme | Crude Oil, Shipping |
| Sudan Civil War | Critical | None | Moderate | African Markets |
| Myanmar | High | None | Moderate | Rare Earths, ASEAN |
| DRC / Congo | High | None | Extreme | Cobalt, Coltan |
| China–Taiwan | Elevated | Medium | Catastrophic | Semiconductors, TSMC |
| Iran Tensions | Elevated | Medium | Extreme | Hormuz Oil, Gold |
Orrery monitors every active global conflict in real time, scoring market impact across energy, commodities, currencies, and equities — updated as events develop.
START FREE TRIAL →As of 2025, there are more than 56 ongoing armed conflicts worldwide, with approximately 7 classified as major wars involving more than 1,000 battle-related deaths per year. The most significant include Ukraine-Russia, Israel-Gaza, Sudan, Myanmar, and the DRC. The Uppsala Conflict Data Program reports this represents the highest concentration of active conflicts since World War II.
The Ukraine-Russia war continues to have the highest direct market impact in 2025, primarily through energy prices (European natural gas), global wheat and grain supplies, and NATO defense spending. The Israel-Gaza conflict ranks second for market impact, with ripple effects through Middle East oil supply routes, Red Sea shipping disruptions, and regional currency stability. The DRC conflict ranks third but is increasingly significant for battery metal supply chains.
Global conflicts affect markets through multiple channels: energy price spikes (oil and gas), commodity disruptions (wheat, copper, rare earths), supply chain rerouting costs, flight-to-safety flows into gold and USD, increased defense spending (boosting defense stocks), and risk-off sentiment causing broad equity sell-offs. The VIX (volatility index) typically spikes 20-40% within days of major conflict escalations. Orrery tracks all five channels in real time.
Historically, gold is the top-performing asset during geopolitical crises, rising an average of 8-15% in the 6 months following major conflict escalations. US Treasury bonds (flight-to-safety), USD cash positions, Swiss franc, and defense sector ETFs (XAR, ITA) also outperform during conflict periods. Energy commodities like crude oil and natural gas spike initially but can reverse sharply once conflicts stabilize. The optimal strategy depends on the nature and location of the conflict.
Major geopolitical analysts do not classify current conflicts as the beginning of World War 3, though the risk is higher than at any point since the Cold War. The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists' Doomsday Clock stood at 89 seconds to midnight as of early 2025 — the closest ever recorded. Key escalation risks include NATO-Russia direct engagement in Ukraine, China-Taiwan military action, and Iran-Israel confrontation expanding into a regional war. Orrery's conflict tracker assigns escalation probability scores to each scenario.