Europe replaced Russian gas but pays 2-3× more for it. Industrial energy costs are hollowing out European manufacturing. The continent remains vulnerable to LNG disruptions, Norwegian outages, and cold winters.
LNG import capacity, Algerian gas pipeline. Less Russian dependency historically.
Nuclear power reduces gas dependency. LNG terminals operational. Grid stable.
Largest consumer. LNG terminals now operational but industry paying high prices. Deindustrialisation accelerating.
Still dependent on Russian pipeline gas via TurkStream. Political alignment with Moscow creates vulnerability.
Landlocked, limited LNG access. Dependent on transit through Ukraine and Austria.
Diversified to Algeria, LNG. But industrial gas costs remain 3× 2021 levels.
High energy costs are the slow-motion killer of European industry. Chemical, steel, aluminium, glass, ceramics, and fertiliser producers all require cheap energy to compete globally. With European gas prices 3× US prices and 5× pre-war European prices, entire industries are either shutting down or moving production to the US (attracted by IRA subsidies) or Asia.
Germany's BASF — the world's largest chemical company — has cut production at its flagship Ludwigshafen facility and shifted investment to China. This is a historic signal: one of Europe's most iconic industrial companies is slowly abandoning its home continent due to energy costs. If BASF goes, others will follow.
Storage above 85%, LNG deliveries steady, mild winter. Gas prices remain elevated but no shortages. Industrial pain continues slowly.
Cold snap + Norwegian production disruption or Asian LNG demand spike pulls supply. Prices spike 50-100%, governments reimpose demand restrictions. Some industrial shutdowns.
Extreme cold + TurkStream disruption + Norwegian incident simultaneously. Emergency demand rationing, possible industrial shutdown orders. Political crisis in multiple member states.
Orreryx tracks Ukraine war developments, Norwegian production data, LNG shipping incidents, and winter storage levels — all the signals that determine Europe's energy security.
Start Free Trial — No Card Required →